Latest news with #economic outlook
Asharq Al-Awsat
4 days ago
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook
The International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high despite some increased trade and improved financial conditions. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the fund would update its global forecast later in July given "front-loading ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," along with improved financial conditions and signs of continued declines in inflation. In April the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of US tariffs on imports now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth. At the time, it cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Economists expect a slight upward revision when the IMF releases an updated forecast in late July. According to Reuters, Gopinath told finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies who met this week in South Africa that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook. "While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high," she said, in a text of her remarks. She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy changes to address underlying domestic imbalances, including scaling back fiscal outlays and putting debt on a sustainable path. Gopinath also underscored the need for monetary policy officials to carefully calibrate their decisions to specific circumstances in their countries, and stressed the need to protect central bank independence. This was a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials. Gopinath said capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies remained sluggish, but resilient, in the face of increased policy uncertainty and market volatility. For many borrowers, financing conditions remained tight. For countries with unsustainable debt, proactive moves were essential, Gopinath said, repeating the IMF's call for timely and efficient debt restructuring mechanisms. More work was needed on that issue, including allowing middle-income countries to access the G20's Common Framework for Debt Restructuring, she said.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
IMF eyes revised global forecast, but warns trade tensions still cloud outlook
By Andrea Shalal WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high despite some increased trade and improved financial conditions. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the fund would update its global forecast later in July given "front-loading ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," along with improved financial conditions and signs of continued declines in inflation. In April the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth. At the time, it cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Economists expect a slight upward revision when the IMF releases an updated forecast in late July. Gopinath told finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies who met this week in South Africa that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook. "While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high," she said, in a text of her remarks. She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy changes to address underlying domestic imbalances, including scaling back fiscal outlays and putting debt on a sustainable path. Gopinath also underscored the need for monetary policy officials to carefully calibrate their decisions to specific circumstances in their countries, and stressed the need to protect central bank independence. This was a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials. Gopinath said capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies remained sluggish, but resilient, in the face of increased policy uncertainty and market volatility. For many borrowers, financing conditions remained tight. For countries with unsustainable debt, proactive moves were essential, Gopinath said, repeating the IMF's call for timely and efficient debt restructuring mechanisms. More work was needed on that issue, including allowing middle-income countries to access the G20's Common Framework for Debt Restructuring, she said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
4 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
IMF eyes revised global forecast, but warns trade tensions still cloud outlook
WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high despite some increased trade and improved financial conditions. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the fund would update its global forecast later in July given "front-loading ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," along with improved financial conditions and signs of continued declines in inflation. In April the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth. At the time, it cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Economists expect a slight upward revision when the IMF releases an updated forecast in late July. Gopinath told finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies who met this week in South Africa that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook. "While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high," she said, in a text of her remarks. She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy changes to address underlying domestic imbalances, including scaling back fiscal outlays and putting debt on a sustainable path. Gopinath also underscored the need for monetary policy officials to carefully calibrate their decisions to specific circumstances in their countries, and stressed the need to protect central bank independence. This was a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials. Gopinath said capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies remained sluggish, but resilient, in the face of increased policy uncertainty and market volatility. For many borrowers, financing conditions remained tight. For countries with unsustainable debt, proactive moves were essential, Gopinath said, repeating the IMF's call for timely and efficient debt restructuring mechanisms. More work was needed on that issue, including allowing middle-income countries to access the G20's Common Framework for Debt Restructuring, she said.
Bloomberg
15-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Singapore Central Bank Sees Slower Financial Sector Growth
Singapore will likely see slower growth in its financial sector in coming years as a confluence of trade and geopolitical tension clouds the economic outlook for the trade-dependent country, according to the central bank. While the sector advanced by 6.8% in 2024, more than double the 3.1% growth reported in the previous year, growth is not expected to 'continue at the pace of the last few years,' Chia Der Jiun, managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said at the central bank's annual briefing on Tuesday.
Reuters
15-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Australia July consumer optimism restrained by rate surprise, survey shows
SYDNEY, July 15 (Reuters) - A measure of Australian consumer sentiment improved marginally in July, a survey showed on Tuesday, though optimism on the economy was tempered by a central bank decision to skip a cut in interest rates. A Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey showed its main index of consumer sentiment crept up 0.6% in July, following an equally restrained 0.5% increase in June. The index was 12.6% higher than a year earlier at 93.1, but being below 100 that still meant pessimists outnumbered optimists. The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets last week by holding rates at 3.85%, when many had looked for a further cut following easings in February and May. Matthew Hassan, Westpac's head of Australian macro-forecasting, noted those surveyed before the decision reported an index reading of 95.6,while those surveyed after produced a reading of just 92. "The reaction checked what would probably have been a solid rise," said Hassan. "It still leaves the consumer mood stuck at 'cautiously pessimistic' levels overall." A separate weekly survey from ANZ found a similar souring in mood, as its index dropped 2.1 points to 86.5 led by concerns over the economic outlook. Likewise, the Westpac survey showed its index of the economic outlook for the next year nudged up 1.8%, while that for five years fell 2.8%. Family finances compared to a year ago did enjoy a bounce of 5.0%, while the outlook for the next 12 months picked up by 2.6%. In a disappointing note for retailers, the index of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item dropped 2.6%.
